Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering financial and social data, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, taxes, health services, pensions, public liabilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but reject greater financial contributions or introducing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government must determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, justified arguments, he commented. "Somebody will succeed here and somebody will in the end lose but both parties has has something to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
