Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Significant resources is expended on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow brutally reminds the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's exposure was revealed. Ukraine is capable of detecting projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capacity afforded by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to intercept incoming cruise missiles flew past – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles targeted at a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably provided by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly becomes grim resignation: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Regrettably, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: several casualties, damage and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new approach from Washington follows the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, certainly, persist.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of repeatedly advocating Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot achieve through diplomacy what you have lost on the battlefield. The American government assumes that it is unrealistic to force Russia to relinquish the land that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The issue is that while acknowledging this situation, Washington does little to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not shift further in its benefit in the coming year.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its supporters are nearing depletion. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing people and territory but avoiding a complete military breakdown until conditions improve in its favour.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, subjective factors are coming into play: personal goals to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's double obstacles – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all achieved their purpose.
While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and reflect certain reluctance to modify developments, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
